JOSE, Calif.-- The semiconductor industry is headed into the home stretch for
calendar 2013, and it's at this point in the story that the question always
arises, "what's next year going to look like?"
Jim Feldhan, founder of Semico Research, thinks it's going to be a really solid
speaking this week at his company's annual IP Impact Summit here, based his
bullishness on his company's Inflection Point Indicator (IPI), a mathematical
model (chart right) that uses current electronics industry data such as bookings, billings,
and backlog to predict industry performance roughly a year in advance.
we're really excited about is what we've seen over the last 8-10 months is a
very strong increase for the IPI, which gives us a very strong indication that
next year, 2014, will be a much better year."
2013, the semiconductor industry is on track for a 6% growth rate, mostly from
the memory segment, where DRAMs are having their best year in 3-4 years (up 37%
this year), Feldhan said.
year, the "the memory market will moderate and logic will pick up,"
IPI suggests 2014 should yield growth of 8-10 percent for the semiconductor
industry, Feldhan forecasts. That would put worldwide revenue next year at a
little more than $350 billion.
it comes to the industry's growing IP segment, Feldhan was even more bullish.
IP Growth Cited
2012, the IP segment grew 21% to $4 billion and should experience the same
growth this year, Feldhan said. Thanks to an ancitipated 19% compound
annual growth rate in the coming years, IP will crack $8 billion in revenue by
2017, he added.
also noted that the royalties, as a percentage of total segment revenue (see second chart, right), is
about to surpass the percentage of licensing fees, meaning more cores are
entering volume production inside system-on-chip (SoC) designs.
for anyone involved in design or verification, Feldhan's next growth indicator
was familiar: By 2017 there will be an average 180 IP blocks per design, more
than triple the average at the beginning of the decade.
really adds a lot of challenge to our design community," Feldhan said,
noting that designers are increasingly leaning on IP subsystems to ease the
complexity of IP integration within SoCs.
2017, subsystem IP will comprise $1.2 billion of the forecast $8 billion
overall IP market, he noted.
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